ngā purongo

1. Te Hiahia Matua mai i ngā Tūmau AI me ngā Pokapū Raraunga

Ko ngā tūmau AI te pūtake nui rawa atu o te tono piki haere mōkakahu muka karāhe iti-whakakore hiko. Ko te whakangungu me ngā tukanga whakatau a te AI e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakawhitiwhiti raraunga nui, e hiahiatia ana te whakamahi i ngā PCB tatau-paparanga teitei me ngā hangarau hononga tere-teitei; ka nui rawa ngā tono mō ngā āhuatanga dielectric me te pumau o ngā rauemi. Nā te whakamahinga o ngā hangarau pēnei i te PCIe 6.0 me ngā kōwae whatu 224G, kua nekehia ngā whakaritenga mahi mō ngā laminates parahi-whakakikoruatia (CCL) i roto i ngā tūmau AI mai i te iti-ngaronga paerewa ki te iti-ngaronga tino-iti (ULL) me te iti-ngaronga tino-iti (HLL), e akiaki tika ana i te pikinga o te tono mō ngā momo e rite ana o te kakahu muka karāhe iti-whakakikoruatia. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga mākete ko te uara o ngā CCL i roto i ngā tūmau AI he 5 ki te 8 ngā wā i tērā o ngā tūmau tuku iho. Hei rauemi mata matua, i eke te utu o te kakahu muka karāhe iti-whakakikoruatia teitei ki te 320,000–350,000 RMB/tana i te tau 2025—he pikinga 20% mai i te tīmatanga o te tau—me ētahi tauira motuhake e piki ana te utu tae atu ki te 250%–300%.

Mō te rerekētanga o te tuku me te tono, e akiakihia ana e te pikinga tonu o te tono mai i ngā kiritaki AI o raro iho me ngā herenga ki te kaha whakaputa kakahu hiko teitei o runga ake, kua heke ngā taumata haumaru o ngā kakahu hiko teitei i ngā kaihanga nui o CCL ki raro iho i te kotahi wiki te tuku, he tohu iti rawa tēnei o mua. Hei whakatutuki i te tono mō ngā hua teitei, kua akiakihia ngā kaihanga CCL ki te whakapiki i ngā utu hoko. I runga i ngā au o ngā utu o nāianei me te whenua tuku-tono, kua rite ngā kakahu muka karāhe teitei ki te kite i ngā pikinga o te rahinga me te utu i te wā kotahi.

2. Ngā Whakaritenga Mahi mō te Tākai Maramara Tino Pai

Ko te hangarau tākai matatau mō ngā maramara AI tētahi atu āhuatanga tono matua mōkakahu muka karāhe iti-whakakore hikoI te mea kei te ahu whakamua ngā tukanga hanga maramara ki te pūnga 3nm me tua atu, kei te piki haere tonu ngā mātotoru tākai. Ko ngā papa ABF—ngā kaikawe matua e hono ana i ngā maramara ki ngā PCB—he tino kaha ngā whakaritenga mō ngā āhuatanga dielectric me te parakore o ā rātou rauemi turanga. I te nuinga o te wā, me taka te pūmau dielectric ki roto i te awhe 3.0–4.0 (i te 1 MHz), i runga i te auau whakahaere, ko te tauwehenga tohatoha (Df) me whakahaere i waenga i te 0.005 me te 0.010 (i te 1 MHz); ko ngā tono auau teitei (pēnei i te 5G me ngā whakawhitiwhiti tere teitei) ka hiahia pea ki ngā uara iti ake (<0.005). Hei tāpiri, hei whakatutuki i ngā hiahia tākai mātotoru teitei, me whakataurite ngā rauemi i te Tauwehenga Whakawhanui Wera iti (CTE) me te ātete wera teitei hei ārai i te pakaru o te ara iahiko i puta mai i te ahotea wera. Kua ara ake te papanga muka kuata (e mōhiotia ana ko te "fabric-Q" te "fabric hiko o te whakatupuranga tuatoru rānei") hei rauemi pai mō ngā papa ABF nā te iti o te pūmau dielectric (2.2–2.3), te iti o te ngaronga dielectric (Df o 0.001–0.0005), me te kaha ki te tu atu i ngā pāmahana mahi mō te wā roa o te 600°C, neke atu rānei.

Ko te tere o te tipu o ngā tuku maramara AI o te ao kei te akiaki tika i te pikinga o te tono mō ngā papanga quartz. E ai ki ngā matapae a Future Think Tank, e matapaetia ana ka eke te mākete papanga quartz o te ao ki te $3.127 piriona i te tau 2031, me te tere tipu ā-tau (CAGR) o te 23.30%. E whakaatu ana tēnei matapae i te ia pikinga o te tono, e whakawhirinaki ana ki te pikinga tonu o ngā tuku maramara AI me te whānui o te whakamahi i ngā hangarau tākai matatau. Heoi anō, ko te whanaketanga o ngā tūāpapa AI o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei—pērā i a "Rubin"—e hangai ana ki ngā tukanga hanga maramara 3nm, N4 rānei, ā, e whakamahi ana i te tākai papa nui rawa atu a CoWoS-L. Ka whakauruhia e ēnei tūāpapa e waru ngā puranga HBM4 hei whakatutuki i ngā tono mō te whānui me te hononga teitei ake, e tuku ana i tētahi otinga tino pai mō te whakanui i te mana rorohiko. Ko ngā whakaritenga mō ngā papa nui rawa atu me te mahi tino nui ka whakawhānui ake i te tono mō ngā rauemi mata o te papanga quartz, ka akiaki i te whanaketanga o ngā papanga karāhe Low-Dk (iti te pūmau dielectric) ki ngā pūmau dielectric iti ake me ngā āhuatanga mate iti ake.

3. Ngā Pānga Tipu Tahi puta noa i ngā Rāngai Maha

I tua atu i te rāngai matua o te mana rorohiko AI, ko te tono mai i ngā mara pēnei i te whakawhitiwhiti kōrero 5G/6G me ngā hikohiko kaihoko teitei kei te akiaki i te tipu mahi tahi me te AI. Ko te whanaketanga mai i te ngaru mirimita 5G (24–100 GHz) ki te hangarau terahertz 6G (te whānuitanga auau tata ki te 100 GHz–3 THz) kei roto ko ngā auau teitei ake e tino pāngia ai ngā taputapu whakawhitiwhiti kōrero ki te ngaronga tohu. Ahakoa i hiahiatia e te wā 5G he papanga muka karāhe tino iti te ngaronga, ko te wā 6G he whakaritenga tino kaha ake mō te pūmau dielectric (Dk) me te tauwehenga horapa (Df): me heke te Dk ki te 2.0–3.0 (i te >100 GHz), me heke te Df mai i te paerewa 5G o te 0.003–0.005 (i te 10 GHz) ki te 0.0001–0.0007 (i te 100 GHz), ka puta he hiahia mō te papanga quartz "tino iti te ngaronga". I roto i te rāngai hikohiko kaihoko, kua whakamahia e te iPhone 17 te papanga iti-CTE (tauwehenga o te whakawhānui wera) me te iti-mate hikohiko i tukuna e Honghe Technology hei whakatika i ngā wero pēnei i te whakapiripiri i te maramara A10 Pro 3nm, te aukati i te piko i roto i ngā papahoahoa kiato-teitei, me te whakaiti i te ngaronga pūngao i roto i ngā tohu 5G/Wi-Fi 7 auau-teitei. Ko tēnei nekehanga e tohu ana i te whakawhiti tere o ngā papanga hiko teitei mai i ngā tono ahumahi ki ngā taputapu hiko kaihoko matua, e akiaki ana i te pikinga o te tono rauemi me te whakaroa i ngā wā tuku. Ko te whakahoutanga atamai o ngā taputapu hiko motuka kei te whai wāhi atu ki te pikinga o te tono; ko te taraiwa motuhake matatau (Taumata 3 me runga ake) e hiahia ana ki te maha o ngā pūoko ADAS me ngā radar auau-teitei. Ko enei pūnaha e hiahia ana ki te pumau tuku tohu, te pono o te hononga whakapiripiri mo te wa roa, me te manawanui o te taumata motuka ki te wiri, te wera, me te haumākū. Nō reira, ko ngā rauemi papa hikohiko he iti ngā pumau mate hiko, he iti te ngaronga mate hiko, te ātete CAF (conductive anodic filament), me te iti o te CTE kua waiho hei whiringa pai mō ngā pūnaha taraiwa atamai matatau, e tere ake ai te whakamahi whānui o te papanga muka karāhe teitei. E ai ki ngā matapae ahumahi, ka eke te mākete o te ao mō ngā papanga hiko iti-whakapūmau-hiko ki te 3.76 piriona yuan i te tau 2031, ka tipu i te tere ā-tau whakakotahi o te 10.1%—he ia e ahu mai ana i te huihuinga o te tono puta noa i ngā rāngai maha.

Ko te rohe whakamutunga o te whakawhānui i te mana rorohiko kei roto i te pakaru i ngā rohe ā-tinana o ngā rauemi. Mai i ngā PCB tino iti te ngaronga e whakamahia ana i roto i ngā tūmau AI me te papanga quartz i roto i ngā takai matatau ki ngā paparanga teitei mō ngā hiko kaihoko me te taraiwa motuhake, kei te tomo te papanga muka karāhe iti-mate-hiko ki tētahi "wā o mua i te tirohanga." I waenganui i te whenua tuku-tono e tohuhia ana e te pikinga o ngā rahinga, te pikinga o ngā utu, me te korenga o te kaha, kua puta ake tēnei "papanga hiko" māmā hei tētahi o ngā rāngai tipu tino kaha e hono ana i te hanganga taputapu AI me ngā hangarau whakawhitiwhiti auau-teitei o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei.